Runners Forum banner

1 - 2 of 2 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
2 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
New racing time predictor for serious track middle & distance runners ( "elite" level ) & coaches, managers & statisticians available for a nominal fee :


At "Jundo Predictor"


( do Yahoo search )
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2 Posts
Discussion Starter #2
Some demonstrations of it's use :

- Paula Radcliffe in her autobiography states she ran a 4'01 time-trial & with her best contemporaneous 3000m time of 8'22, what does that predict for 5000 & 10000m ?
Perhaps use 4'00 - 4'01 / 8'21 - 8'22 as actual races may be be faster than time-trials due to competition, & she ran her 8'22 too slow at 2k with a 5'37 split.
After her Monaco run, she had all the info required to predict what was possible for her in '02 over 5000 & 10000 based on 4'00 - 4'01 / 8'21 - 8'22 :

-> 14'18.34 - 14'23.69 , 29'40.01 - 30'00.71


- Hicham El Guerrouj : when he ran 3'26.00 WR, with a good guess of likely 12'45 - 12'47 potential at the time ( he ran 12'50 a few years later when beaten by Stephen Cherono, but they slowed into a tactical affair in the last 1Km & it's reasonable to give Hicham the benefit of the doubt & assume he was in better 5k form in '98 than '03 ), what does 3'26 / 12'45 - 12'47 predict for him for 800, 1000, 2000, 3000, 10000 ?

-> 1'43.16 - 1'43.32, 2'11.92 - 2'12.06, 4'42.15 - 4'42.34, 7'19.06 - 7'19.75, 27'00.20 - 27'06.50

so, he was also capable of the 1000 & 3000 records in his prime !!!


- Seb Coe in '81 :

Likely 1'41.50 ( he was worth better than 1'41.73, as he faded badly in the last 200m with 26.7 after preceding averages of ~ 25.0. He should ideally have gone out in nearer 50.0 - 50.5 / 75.5 - 76.0 & then able to hang on better in last 200m ) with :

45.20 -> 1'12.67, 2'11.34, 3'29.19, 3'46.70, 7'40.00

45.30 -> 1'12.73, 2'11.26, 3'28.85, 3'46.30, 7'38.57

45.40 -> 1'12.79, 2'11.18, 3'28.51, 3'45.89, 7'37.14

45.50 -> 1'12.86, 2'11.10, 3'28.17, 3'45.49, 7'35.71

indicates he was a low 45 runner in his prime, but underperformed at 1000/1500/1 mile : a 3'47.33 or 2'12.18 doesn't compare to a 1'41.5 !

- Steve Cram in '85 :

Likely 1'42.50 ( he was worth better than 1'42.88 - he just kicked of Cruz, who if he'd gone faster, so would have Cram ) with :

46.10 -> 2'12.27, 3'29.70, 3'47.09, 4'50.29, 7'38.03

46.20 -> 2'12.19, 3'29.36, 3'46.69, 4'49.63, 7'36.60

46.30 -> 2'12.11, 3'29.02, 3'46.28, 4'48.97, 7'35.17

46.40 -> 2'12.03, 3'28.68, 3'45.87, 4'48.31, 7'33.74

46.50 -> 2'11.95, 3'28.34, 3'45.47, 4'47.65, 7'32.31

46.60 -> 2'11.87, 3'28.00, 3'45.06, 4'46.98, 7'30.88
I'd go for 46.5 - 46.6 for him that year - see what that indicates for 1000/1500 above ( don't worry about 2000m - despite breaking the WR, his ''endurance'' didn't appear to fully ''hold on'' for 2000m - his optimum distance was somewhere between 1000m - 1 mile : you decide


- Steve Ovett in '78 :

1'44.09 / 8'13.51 -> 2'13.83, 3'30.89, 3'48.15, 4'50.78, 7'36.46

but neither his 1'44.09 or his 8'13.51 were well-paced races, so more likely is :

1'43.50 - 1'43.75 / 8'10 - 8'12 -> ???
He was capable of the 1000/1500/1 Mile/2000 world records in '78 ( think a ''prototype Aouita )


- Dave Moorcroft in '82 :

1'46.64 / 13'00.41 -> 3'31.67, 3'48.51, 4'49.38, 7'29.19, 27'26.99

again, I'm sure he'll claim he could have paced his 800 better (if he'd run it more often that year ) & his 13'00.41 would certainly have been faster with a pacemaker, so

1'46.0 - 1'46.5 / 12'55 -> ???

check what the world records for 1500/1 mile/2000/3000 were in '82 & then see what that infers for Moorcroft


- Said Aouita : most difficult athlete of all to predict : every season he ran different distances, but in his prime of '84/'85, I reckon he was in ~ 1'44.00 - 1'44.50 / 27'20 - 27'30 shape.
What does that predict for 1500/1 Mile/2000/3000/5000 in those years ? Of note is how poorly he underperformed over 3000m - Lazy runner who didn't chase the records as hard as he could have ( what on earth was he doing 6 or 7m behind Cram at the bell ? ).


- Daniel Komen in his prime for 3000/10000 : try 3'29 - 3'30 / 12'39 - 12'40


- Saidi-Sief : try 3'29.0 - 3'29.5/ 12'47 - 12'50
( latter range for 5k is wide, but i'm not completely sure how fast he was for it, as he only had 2 really peak years before his ban )


- Bekele : probably try 12'35 / 26'15
( those look nearer his current ''absolute limit'' ) for 1500/2000/3000 ( also try 400 - I don't believe his open 400 is as quick as people believe - he's been outsprinted by Chebbi/Kipchoge/Hicham/Lagat/Choge )


- Wang : probably try 3'51 / 8'04
( she didn't run 8'06.11 ''perfectly evenly'' & was probably worth nearer 8'04 ) for 400m/800m/5000m/10000m


- Dibaba : probably try 56.0 / 29'50 - 30'10
( I can't get a better idea of her 10k, as she's run it so rarely ! ) for 800m/1500m/2000m/3000m/5000m
 
1 - 2 of 2 Posts
Top